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Case Shiller and Zillow Indexes show Easing in Price Declines for Dallas - Fort Worth

Case Shiller Index, Zillow Indexes show easing price declines for Dallas - Fort Worth #p #in

Last Update: 2011-07-06 13:41:33

The Case Shiller Home Price Indexes were published last week and it's time to look inside the data at Dallas-Fort Worth's index level as of April. (The index is published two months in arears.)

This month I am not including the "seasonally adjusted" data. On it's surface I never really believed it was relevant and said so before. Seasonally adjusted is most often associated with using annualizing one month's data for comparison to a series of monthly readings. Especially in the case of Case Shiller (pun intended) where the data is a look at month over month data, it seemed a mistaken application of the concept. I did some more research and the result -- RIP "seasonally adjusted" price index.

Also this month, I am have made an index of the Zillow median home price for Dallas-Fort Worth and plotted it along with the Case Shiller unadjusted index. Now we have the results of two methods to look at --

  1. Case Shiller, where repeat sales of the same home are compared through a complex method; and
  2. Zillow, where the all the home prices are estimated (zestimated) monthly through a complex process and the median value reported. Keeping apples-to-apples I use Zillow's DFW number.
In either case declines appear to have slowed, a bottom may be forming. I report in another article that east Dallas MLS sales for June continue the 2011 trend as the slowest in 5 years, not by a much as other months. Listings continue to exceed sales. (See the east Dallas area 12 MLS sales trends.) The apparent settling of prices may indicate price levels are now in line with demand, a bottom may be forming.

Here is the chart, if you have any questions or would like an evaluation of your specific property, contact me. See you next month.

Case Shiller and Zillow  DFW Price Index

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